I recently learned of a one-time opportunity which could be worth $350,000 to the team that can successfully exploit it. Unfortunately, I will be away for the next few weeks, and I seriously doubt this opportunity will last, so I.m posting it here and hoping one of my brethren can take advantage of it [and send me my 1% finder.s fee ;-) ]. If you.re interested, read on!
The casino in question is Cypress Bayou (CB), located in charming Charenton, Louisiana. For those of you unfamiliar with LA.s backroads, CB is located at the Baldwin exit off U.S. 90 about 30 miles south of Lafayette, or about 90 miles west of New Orleans. If you.ve ever read Kevin Blackwood.s excellent novel, The Counter, CB serves (I believe) as the model for his fictional .The Swamp.: the casino indeed looks as if it were originally a barn. It has no hotel (the nearest facility is the Best Western Forest Motor Inn (337 828-1810) in Franklin, about 8 miles away). In addition, CB is not open 24 hours a day. It opens at noon and closes at 2:00 AM (Sun-Thurs) or 4:00 AM (Fri-Sat).
For some time now, CB has had a Progressive Blackjack table. On this table, the player has the opportunity to make a $1 side bet. He wins the side bet by receiving two of more aces as the first cards on his hand (see below for payouts). Apparently, splitting has no effect on the payout, so if the player receives a pair of aces, he can split them and still receive a payout. To win the jackpot, the player must receive 4 black aces or 4 red aces as his first four cards. The table is a six-deck shoe, and the BJ limits are $5-$500. Finally, according to the Wizard of Odds (see link below), about 28 cents goes into the progressive meter for each dollar wagered on the side bet.
CB has been trying to do away with this table for some time now, probably to avoid having to pay licensing fees. Apparently, they cannot simply take it down, because they have amassed a jackpot of $350,000 on its progressive meter. Thus, starting on December 1st, they have increases the payouts as detailed below:
2 unsuited aces, increased from $25 to $200
2 suited aces, increased from $100 to $300
3 unsuited aces, increased from $250 to $500
3 suited aces, increased from $2500 to $5000
4 black or 4 red aces, entire jackpot.
Furthermore, the winning payouts will be deducted from the jackpot, and once the jackpot falls below $10,000, the next 2-ace hand will receive the entire jackpot, and the table will be permanently closed.
Using the probabilities from the Wizard of Odds website (see link below), I have calculated that the return on the side bet is currently about $2.30 for each $1 wagered. Until the jackpot falls below $10K, the return is ($1.42 + Jackpot*23760/9294695280), so it is a +EV situation the whole time. Finally, when the jackpot falls to $10K, the side bet is worth a whopping $56.64 for the 200 or so hands required for someone to hit a winning hand.
I feel that the optimal way to exploit this opportunity is to have a team take over the entire table, flat betting nickels and playing the side bet on every hand. However, this approach has a few drawbacks. First, the casino opens daily at noon, so the team members will have to sprint to the table to ensure they get the seats. Second, I doubt the casino will allow anyone to play multiple spots (though I don.t know this for a fact), so the team will need enough players to play all (seven, I think) spots. Third, the members will have to be able to play for extended periods of time: fortunately, CB has the most comfortable seats I.ve yet found at a BJ table.
Assuming the team members can play BS in their sleep, you can probably see at least 100 rounds (so 700 hands) per hour (CB cuts .em shallow, so you.ll see lots of shuffling), so the team should be able to win $700 per hour.
Good Luck, and Merry Christmas!
Dog Hand